Josh Allen
QB · Bills · BUF @ MIA
The call
OVER 1.5
Passing TDs
6/10hit, L10
- Best
- −128
- Fair
- −143
- Edge
- +2.8 pts
Stake 1.50u · wins 59% of the time
Closer compares 41 sportsbooks every 4 seconds, finds the fair price, and hands you the calls that beat it.
Sample calls for illustration. Analytics and price comparison only, not betting or financial advice. Positive expected value is never a guaranteed win.
Ja'Marr Chase CIN @ BAL
Over 6.5 receptions
L5
60%
L10
50%
L20
45%
vs BAL
50%
2025
47%
Receptions, last 10 games
Line movement, 6h
LIVE8s agoNames shown for identification only. Closer is not affiliated with any sportsbook.
Features
Everything a sharp does by hand, done on every line at once.
A live feed of positive EV bets, ranked by what they are worth.
Every prop, line and alternate where a book's price beats the fair price. Right now the top of the sample feed is Ja'Marr Chase at +122, worth +6.1%.
Positive EV
LIVE8sJa'Marr Chase
Over 6.5 receptions
Bijan Robinson
Over 88.5 rush yds
Justin Jefferson
100+ receiving yds
Hit rates for every player prop, game by game.
See how often a player cleared the number over the last 5, 10 and 20 games, and against this opponent. Ja'Marr Chase has gone over 6.5 in 5 of the last 10.
Ja'Marr Chase
Over 6.5 receptions
L5
60%
L10
50%
L20
45%
Bars above the dashed line cleared 6.5.
The same bet pays +122 at one book and +100 at another.
Closer lines up every book side by side with the no-vig fair price, so you can see who is off and by how much. Today that is FanDuel.
Best price
Ja'Marr Chase · Over 6.5 receptions
Fair price +109 from 38 books
Alerts the moment a number fits your rules.
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Alerts
Rule: any book beats fair by 3% or more, NFL props, starts within 8 hours.
The live board
Every mispriced line across the market, ranked by what it is worth, with the stake sized. Sort it, filter it, watch a price move. It is running on sample data.
| # | Bet | Book | Fair | Stake | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Ja'Marr Chase Over 6.5 receptions CIN @ BAL | FDFanDuel | +122 | +109 | +2.75 pts | +6.1% | 1.25u | 1:04:09 |
| 02 | Bijan Robinson Over 88.5 rush yds ATL @ TB | MGMBetMGM | −110 | −123 | +2.72 pts | +5.2% | 1.50u | 1:04:09 |
| 03 | Justin Jefferson 100+ receiving yds MIN @ CHI | DKDraftKings | +210 | +195 | +1.64 pts | +5.1% | 0.50u | 1:04:09 |
| 04 | Josh Allen Over 1.5 pass TDs BUF @ MIA | DKDraftKings | −128 | −143 | +2.76 pts | +4.9% | 1.50u | 1:04:09 |
| 05 | Amon-Ra St. Brown Anytime touchdown DET @ GB | ESPNESPN BET | +135 | +124 | +2.05 pts | +4.8% | 1.00u | 4:19:09 |
| 06 | Green Bay Packers +3 spread DET @ GB | CZRCaesars | −105 | −115 | +2.18 pts | +4.3% | 1.00u | 4:19:09 |
| 07 | Lamar Jackson Over 44.5 rush yds CIN @ BAL | FANFanatics | −115 | −125 | +2.11 pts | +3.9% | 1.25u | 1:04:09 |
| 08 | Aaron Judge Over 1.5 total bases NYY @ BOS | BRBetRivers | +105 | −102 | +1.62 pts | +3.3% | 0.75u | 22:09 |
| 09 | Shohei Ohtani To hit a home run LAD @ SF | FDFanDuel | +270 | +258 | +0.87 pts | +3.2% | 0.25u | 2:32:09 |
| 10 | PHI @ DAL Under 47.5 points PHI @ DAL | BRBetRivers | −108 | −115 | +1.58 pts | +3.0% | 0.75u | 7:19:09 |
| 11 | CeeDee Lamb Over 79.5 receiving yds PHI @ DAL | HRHard Rock | −112 | −119 | +1.47 pts | +2.8% | 0.75u | 7:19:09 |
| 12 | Miami Dolphins +7.5 alt spread BUF @ MIA | CZRCaesars | −135 | −143 | +1.35 pts | +2.4% | 0.75u | 1:04:09 |
Ja'Marr Chase
Over 6.5 receptions · CIN @ BAL
Bijan Robinson
Over 88.5 rush yds · ATL @ TB
Justin Jefferson
100+ receiving yds · MIN @ CHI
Josh Allen
Over 1.5 pass TDs · BUF @ MIA
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Anytime touchdown · DET @ GB
Green Bay Packers
+3 spread · DET @ GB
How it works
Closer does not predict games. It does the math a sharp does by hand, on every line at once.
41 books polled continuously, every market matched to one key.
38 books quote this prop
Strip each book's margin, then blend into one consensus weighted toward sharp books.
+102 / −118 holds 3.6%, fair is 47.8%
Any price whose break-even sits below the fair probability is an edge.
+122 needs 45.0%, fair is 47.8%
Quarter Kelly in units of 1% of bankroll, rounded to a quarter unit.
1.25u, or $62.50 on $5,000
Track record
A 3.2% edge is invisible on any one bet. Across 2,125 of them it becomes a slope, with a 31 unit hole in the middle you have to sit through.
Cumulative units, simulated
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